The Job Market and AI
The picture of Al's impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level,
WITH ALL THE HYPE ABOUT AI TAKING OVER THE JOBS OF workers, is this really happening? Not according to a Yale University study. If there has been a significant increase in job losses due to AI, the data is not showing it. That was the conclusion of the Yale researchers. “While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,” the research team, led by Martha Gimbel, concludes. “The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level,” she says.
GenAI has been available for three years now, but there have been no downward blips in employment caused by the technology. The researchers think it may be too early to tell, but the “widespread impacts at this early stage is not unlike the pace of change with the previous period of technological disruption.”
According to the Yale study, historically, widespread technological disruption in workplaces tends to occur over decades, rather than months or years. The researchers gave computers as an example. Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows.
The study concluded with this assessment: Despite all the apocalyptic predictions being made about GenAI, it seems to be within the normal bounds of previous technology waves, such as personal computing and the rise of the internet. All that said, what are companies really doing with AI? This was the topic of an article in the Dec. 31 issue of The Wall Street Journal. Findings showed “a lot of mixed signals and vagueness about how the companies are adopting AI and where.” The article referenced an MIT study that found that 95% of AI pilots are not delivering meaningful value.
Meanwhile, companies are pouring big money into the build-out of data centers in anticipation of a surge in the demand and use of AI. And this is going to put a strain on the electric grid. One prediction is that consumers will be faced with higher electric bills.
But no question, we are in interesting times. PTMR
Bill Lockwood Chairman & Publisher
Bill can be reached at wal@computertalk.com
